Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Human Folly

One of the biggest impressions I have from reading a lot of history that is not anachronistic (reading the present into the past) is that how people have seldom been able to predict the future. For instance, most people at the time of WWI thought it would be over in 6 months. But we humans like our narratives. We are captivated by stories, imposing patterns on reality with a narrative structure, often involving of good and evil. And since we suffer from confirmation bias (we look for evidence that confirms our theories/stories rather than the scientific method of testing a hypothesis to try to disconfirm it), we plod along believing that our knowledge is greater than it acutally is. I am not advocating a radical skepticism, but merely promoting some humility. I like the way buddhists approach this fact. You do the best you can where you can do some good. But don't take your theories too seriously.
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2 comments:

  1. PatrickOctober 15, 2009 at 6:28 PM

    Don't you think one of the real keys is to not only be willing to engage in thedialogue of the moment and respond to the day's events, but as importantly, risk ideas to embrace the future? What if our current knowledge can be seen as a tool to help us understand the pertinent real time issues we still do not understand? You are so right on Wardball to remind us to not take our current theories too seriously, but at the same time that is not to be taken in such a manner as to suggest that we not risk sharing emerging theories we encounter...Wouldn't you agree it is more important to develop new theories leading us forward, rather than spending the majority of our time proving one another wrong in our current outdate, but comfortable, thinking? This world needs real solutions to real time issues, as well as emerging solutions to expected realities...I am game Wardball...your serve.

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  2. WardOctober 18, 2009 at 5:04 PM

    Well, I think dialogue works best if those engaging in the dialogue are willing to question whether they have the answers. And if it involves prediction the future very far out, they probably don't. That said, there are certainly real problems on the horizon as well as on the ground that need our attention...which is, of course, what both of us have been involved with most our adult lives. As for the future, for instance, it is clear that the planet is warming and that we most likely contribute to it. I see the probable solution coming out of technological advances. We don't know what they will be now, but we can create a culture that fosters such advances. And I certainly agree with your point about proving one another wrong, which I why I have a hard time caring about what the extremes on the right and left are saying. If they want to have their own "dialogue" that's fine, but I don't find it particularly interesting.

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