Domasio's new book

Unfortunately, starting from neuroscience, as Antonia Domasio does (see, for instance, this review by Ned Block) in his new book Self Comes to Mind; Constructing the Consious Brain, ignores the most interesting phenomena of mind and consiousness.  Better to look at something like Thomas Ogden in The Primitive Edge of Experience, or many other interesting places.  Neuroscience has made many advances, but once they start trying to talk coherently about dreaming or phenomenal experience we are left with little.  Call it a sort of mind/brain dualism if you want, but I don't think we need to come to any ontological conclusions here.  That, I think modern philosophy has shown, is an intractable problem.

That said, I appreciate Domasio's emphasis on the old brain...the brainstem, cerebellum and other such primitive structures.

Election

Nate Silver is my election night guide. Way better info than tv pundits. Maybe I will check Larry Sabato as well, since he claims to be so prescient. I don't really care too much who wins...I figure if the republicans win the house they will have to govern. You cannot just say no forever. My prediction for the future past election night: the economy will turn around and people will be happy and Obama will win in a landslide in 2012. A good thing because Obama is the best president we have had since Teddy Roosevelt. He will get to claim credit for the economy just as he being blamed for it now (not just by right-wingers but lefties as well such as Rachel Maddow and Paul Krugman). The reality is that he doesn't have much to do with it. I think most economists (who are not partisans) would say such an idea is silly.

BTW: I am glad the health care bill passed, but it is a mess. The nonpartisan bill (sponsored by Bob Bennett and Ron Wyden) was much better. The right is mostly to blame for the stupidity surrounding discussion of the bill but the democrats screwed up in catering to the old guard who run the committees in the Senate. But politics is messy. The old saying: two things you do not want to see being made---sausage and law.  Those on the left who want Medicare for everyone have never managed to explain how they were going to pay for it.  Or how to make decisions on what to cover.  Everyone cannot have any medical treatment they want.

Gladwell's "Talent Grab"

Malcolm Gladwell is assuredly one of the best current non-fiction authors, writing for the best magazine, The New Yorker. In his recent “Talent Grab” he, as usual, hooks in his readers in the opening paragraph. Gladwell tells stories, and the first story is of Marvin Miller, the pugnacious union attorney who freed ballplayers from being the property of the owners, and ultimately the elimination of the reserve clause and free agency.

The question he addresses is why professionals in various fields make so much money. And he makes clear that this situation is one that arose in the recent past. Other examples are publishers/writers, models/modeling agencies, and finally investment bankers. Gladwell has a prism to view these relations from the economists Aya Chacar and William Hesterly, drawing on the work of Alan Fiske. a U.C.L.A. anthropologist. People use one of four models to guide the way the interact with one another: (1) communal sharing; (2) equality matching; (3) market pricing; and (4) authority ranking. For how these apply to real situations, you need to read the article.

Gladwell illuminates human behavior and sees the world in an idiosyncratic way. Of course, he is not always right. But he makes you think. For instance, Robert A. Burton in On Being Certain persuasively argues that Gladwell, in Blink, gets wrong some of the insights of the book that Gladwell admired, Strangers to Ourselves, by Timothy Burton. In his last two articles, Gladwell’s ultimate “conclusion” is only loosely connected to the article. Here, Gladwell is nostalgic for the old days when professionals were the property of Capital. But why do ball-players, writers, movie stars, models and investment bankers make so much money at what they do? Because people freely pay them. How much does it cost to go to a professional sporting event these days? A lot.

Note: You must subscribe to The New Yorker to read this article. Some articles are freely available on-line. Gladwell’s previous article, which compares the civil rights movement to contemporary social revolutionaries, is available here. Again, it seems to me that the "conclusion" is quesitonable.  "If you are of the opinion that all the world needs is a little buffing around the edges, this should not trouble you. But if you think that there are still lunch counters out there that need integrating it ought to give you pause."

Afghan Conundrum

It is time to return to the issue of Afghanistan and our seemingly endless futile quest.  To do what?  The first question we need to consider what are our objectives are in this rugged and lawless place?  "War on terror" is the wrong term to use.  One of the Bush administration's many misleading characterizations of events.  But Obama increased the number of troops there vastly.  What are we trying to do and how to measure success? 

Rory Stewart raises these sorts of questions in his essay The Real Reason We Are in Afghanistan.  I think that he correctly says that Obama increased troops for political reasons. 

The opinion of Frank Rich, the liberal New York Times columnist, is obvious from his essay Kiss This War Goodbye.  I already mentioned the conservative position in the Cato Institute Cato's Letter, which although I have a print copy, does not yet seem available on-line.  But he doesn't think we should be there, either.  Patrick Cockburn, the very liberal pundit, offers suggestions of what to do now in Getting Out of Afghanistan.

Finally, Mohammed Hanit discusses our very troubling relationship with Pakistan in In Pakistan, Echoes of American Betrayal.

So much of what seems right to me any more has to do with "recognizing our limits." I came across a funny quote the other day about the absurdity of training Afghan troops and police to fight. Like many Afghans haven't spent their entire lives in warfare (reminds me of my ancestors in Scotland). This is mostly just another civil war with our "ally" Pakistan supporting terrorists. And a government that stole an election. Time to end the charade.  But do we just want to pull all the troops out?  I am undecided on this question, but I think we should leave a small long-term presence there.  After all, the main goal was to prevent the Taliban from taking control so that terrorists could not use Afghanistan as a training ground.  That was easily accomplished. 

Now, somehow, we need to find a way to try to get Pakistan to help create a more peaceful place across its border (the Army cannot control its side of the border, either).  As Hanif notes, while the ISI (Pakistani secret police) and the Army have often been on the side of the Taliban, the Pakistani populace wants an end to war.  I am going to reread these pieces and suggest something more specific, but Cockburn may be on the right track.  More later on this issue.

Consider this counterfactual.  What if we and the Saudis had never aided the mujahdeen in defeating the Soviets?  They would not have all the sophisticated weapons they have now and the problems would still be Russia's to solve.  Can we learn something from this possible world?  Steve Coll's Ghost Wars is an excellent historical account of this time period, especially from the 1980's to 9/11.

Questions surrounding dying and health care

Here is a remarkable article by Atul Gawande in the current issue of The New Yorker.  This cuts through many of the simple-minded arguments of the right and the left, which I have criticized repeatedly, although it certainly comes down hardest on the stupidity of "death panels," or at least the ignorance of those who believe those who shamelessly make such arguments. 

It reminds of a moment when I was still fighting to save my colon and another treatment had failed.  My doctor recommended a colonectomy with the strong possiblity that I would have a bag the rest of my life.  Well, I was astounded.  I wasn't ready to "give up."  Everyone else apparently knew it was hopeless and Tita told me tonight that he was afraid I was going to die.  I asked him if he gave this advice to everyone at this stage of treatment or was it something about my particular colon.  He said "your colon sucks."  That sort of honesty is greatly appreciated in the aftermath.  More doctors should learn how to deal with such unpleasant facts.

Here are some quotes from Gawande:

"This is the moment in Sara’s story that poses a fundamental question for everyone living in the era of modern medicine: What do we want Sara and her doctors to do now? Or, to put it another way, if you were the one who had metastatic cancer—or, for that matter, a similarly advanced case of emphysema or congestive heart failure—what would you want your doctors to do?

The issue has become pressing, in recent years, for reasons of expense. The soaring cost of health care is the greatest threat to the country’s long-term solvency, and the terminally ill account for a lot of it. Twenty-five per cent of all Medicare spending is for the five per cent of patients who are in their final year of life, and most of that money goes for care in their last couple of months which is of little apparent benefit.

Spending on a disease like cancer tends to follow a particular pattern. There are high initial costs as the cancer is treated, and then, if all goes well, these costs taper off. Medical spending for a breast-cancer survivor, for instance, averaged an estimated fifty-four thousand dollars in 2003, the vast majority of it for the initial diagnostic testing, surgery, and, where necessary, radiation and chemotherapy. For a patient with a fatal version of the disease, though, the cost curve is U-shaped, rising again toward the end—to an average of sixty-three thousand dollars during the last six months of life with an incurable breast cancer. Our medical system is excellent at trying to stave off death with eight-thousand-dollar-a-month chemotherapy, three-thousand-dollar-a-day intensive care, five-thousand-dollar-an-hour surgery. But, ultimately, death comes, and no one is good at knowing when to stop...."

"People have concerns besides simply prolonging their lives. Surveys of patients with terminal illness find that their top priorities include, in addition to avoiding suffering, being with family, having the touch of others, being mentally aware, and not becoming a burden to others. Our system of technological medical care has utterly failed to meet these needs, and the cost of this failure is measured in far more than dollars. The hard question we face, then, is not how we can afford this system’s expense. It is how we can build a health-care system that will actually help dying patients achieve what’s most important to them at the end of their lives."

"The simple view is that medicine exists to fight death and disease, and that is, of course, its most basic task. Death is the enemy. But the enemy has superior forces. Eventually, it wins. And, in a war that you cannot win, you don’t want a general who fights to the point of total annihilation. You don’t want Custer. You want Robert E. Lee, someone who knew how to fight for territory when he could and how to surrender when he couldn’t, someone who understood that the damage is greatest if all you do is fight to the bitter end.

More often, these days, medicine seems to supply neither Custers nor Lees. We are increasingly the generals who march the soldiers onward, saying all the while, “You let me know when you want to stop.” All-out treatment, we tell the terminally ill, is a train you can get off at any time—just say when. But for most patients and their families this is asking too much. They remain riven by doubt and fear and desperation; some are deluded by a fantasy of what medical science can achieve. But our responsibility, in medicine, is to deal with human beings as they are. People die only once. They have no experience to draw upon. They need doctors and nurses who are willing to have the hard discussions and say what they have seen, who will help people prepare for what is to come—and to escape a warehoused oblivion that few really want."

"Like many people, I had believed that hospice care hastens death, because patients forgo hospital treatments and are allowed high-dose narcotics to combat pain. But studies suggest otherwise. In one, researchers followed 4,493 Medicare patients with either terminal cancer or congestive heart failure. They found no difference in survival time between hospice and non-hospice patients with breast cancer, prostate cancer, and colon cancer. Curiously, hospice care seemed to extend survival for some patients; those with pancreatic cancer gained an average of three weeks, those with lung cancer gained six weeks, and those with congestive heart failure gained three months. The lesson seems almost Zen: you live longer only when you stop trying to live longer. When Cox was transferred to hospice care, her doctors thought that she wouldn’t live much longer than a few weeks. With the supportive hospice therapy she received, she had already lived for a year."

"The subject seems to reach national awareness mainly as a question of who should “win” when the expensive decisions are made: the insurers and the taxpayers footing the bill or the patient battling for his or her life. Budget hawks urge us to face the fact that we can’t afford everything. Demagogues shout about rationing and death panels. Market purists blame the existence of insurance: if patients and families paid the bills themselves, those expensive therapies would all come down in price. But they’re debating the wrong question. The failure of our system of medical care for people facing the end of their life runs much deeper. To see this, you have to get close enough to grapple with the way decisions about care are actually made."

Drugs and violence

I haven't watched the PBS Newhour for awhile but switched over there after the local weather last night.  There was a very sad and compelling feature on the violence in northern Mexico.  And there was a piece on the new Arizona law which apparently encourages police to harass people who look Hispanic, with at least one sheriff saying that he did not have near enough resources to enforce the law.  My general view is that if you are going to ask Hispanics for their "papers," you must ask everyone to prove their citizenship.  However, beyond that, our drug laws again strike me as ludicrous.   They have never prevented drugs from being readily available, like prohibition did not prevent alcohol.  They cost a lot of money in law enforcement.  They lead to violence in Mexico and here between drug gangs.  I realize the paternalistic point that it is to try to help people avoid becoming addicts, and maybe this can be defended with regard to children.  But wouldn't it make more sense to tax drug sales and spend more on treatment for addiction?  Because drugs are illegal, smugglers are able to make huge profits (and buy weapons and government officials).  Why cannot we just get over the big brother approach and help the taxpayers out at the same time?

Of course, this is a very libertarian approach.  Why don't more conservatives favor it?  You tell me, but I think this is one more example of inconsistentcy in the supposed philosophy of conservatism, which really doesn't amount to much more than a dislike of liberals and a cluster of often conflicting beliefs.  Read The National Review sometime.  The Cato Institute recently had a good critique on the point of our endless wars (by Joe Scarborough in the most recent Cato's Letter, which did not have a link yet).   The cost is not worth the benefit, similar to the "war on drugs."

Addendum 7/31:  Here is an article on the deaths in Mexico.  The main point to me is the lack of facts regarding what is happening and the murder of journalists who attempt to report them.   It is from The Nation, so I take it with a grain of salt.  I'm not sure what the author implies:  that President Calderon and the Army are murdering civilians?  For what purpose?

Trivial bits

The exploration of Scottish and Irish roots and the complicated histories of the countries and other groups (like clans) has paused, to return with a look at the penal laws and the "ascendency" in Ireland in the late 1600's which made not only Catholics but Presbyterians second class citizens, resulting in the sort of persecution that lead many to leave.  But that is for later.

I've got a rotator cuff injury and am getting physical therapy.  We do not know if there is a tear in the top muscle.  Only an MRI would show that and it is very expensive.  Similary, when we were looking at my heart condition we were looking at cholesterol and triglyceride levels.  There is a carotid artery scan that can actually show the amount of plaque in your arteries, but it is very expensive.  Bottom line is that as a society we cannot afford to give everyone what they want in health care.  But in the health care debate it was never addressed what sort of basic health care which people should be entitled.  Rather, it appeared to be a choice between all or none.  But mostly it was ignorant blather.  And conservative seniors complaining about their benefits being examined is about as hypocritical as you can get, especially if they also complain about welfere.  Medicare is welfare.

I have similar feelings about the immigration debate.  If you are going to have a law like Arizona's, then everyone should be checked for their citizenship papers all the time, and that includes white people.  You will probably need to establish some sort of national i.d. program first.  Of course, a lot of the backlash by white people is rascist.  But that does not mean that we must allow anyone who wants to sneak into the U.S. to stay.  We clearly need a guest worker program unless we are willing to see food prices jump 1000%.  And I am all for granting immigrants citizenship, but I don't see why being here illegally should put you at the front of the line.

A friend chided me for having a land phone line the other day.  I do need one to get updates on my satellite tv, but something else has struck me...all those people yacking on or staring at their cell phones everywhere.  I can understand the need for some business people to be accessible all the time, but for most people it is completely trivial.  Yacking on the phone is not particularly something I enjoy anyway.  You miss the nonverbal cues of real conversation.  If you want to send information, use e-mail.  I will continue to only have my cell-phone on in certain situations.  It is just not that important usually for people to easily reach me.

I was greatly irritated when the news broke that Goldman Sachs announced that they agreed to the largest settlement in history with the SEC for their derivative wrong-doing.  I turned on the NBC nightly news and it was not even mentioned as a major story.  The Banksters almost blew up the world economy and everyone has now moved on (or didn't really understand it in the first place).  How can a democracy work when so many of its citizens are not only uninformed but are emotionally resistant to questioning their own beliefs?  That is a question that has been swirling backstage for some time.  So I am checking out my brother-in-law's book:  Critical Masses and Critical Choices (by Kerry Herron and Hank Jenkins-Smith).  Had to skip most of the first part.  Too dry and technical.  But I think that there might be some hints there.

Only more questions

It seems that there is no connection between the Harper who was granted land in the County of Donegal in 1613 and the Harpers who came over to America in 1718.  Donegal is actually in the Republc of Ireland, just accross the border from Derry County in Northern Ireland.  And the land was given to a Cunningham.  The clans Cunningham and Montgomery had a feud which lasted 213 years.

The story of Hugh Montgomery's grant of land in Ireland involves Hugh and Elis O'Neil, the wife of Con O'Neil, the Irish clan leader who was imprisoned in Carrickfergas Castle on the east coast of Ireland.  Hugh made a deal to spring Con on a jailbreak and get him pardoned by the King in exchange for half his land.  During the negotiations, James Hamilton interfered and each were award one-third of the land.  I don't know when the Cunninghams fit into this story in the Ulster Planation, but they were also given land.

According to a BBC article, the most significant events in early Irish history have been seen as the Union of the Crowns in 1603, the Flight of the Earls in 1607 and the Plantation of Ulster in 1610.  It claims that the Hamilton/Montgomery settlement in 1608 should be included.

I was watching part 4 of Simon Schama's History of Britain (free on YouTube) last night and it appears that feelings of national identity in England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland began to develop in the 1200's, especially with the success at conquer by Edward I of England, called Longshanks because of his large frame (exhumation of his body later showed that he was six foot two inches).  Of course, the Highlanders of Scotland did not acquire a national identity at least until much much later.  Their loyalty was still to the clan (kinfolk).  The same holds in Ireland in the 1600's.  The history of the unification of these places into parts of Great Britain is a long and bloody one.  And, of course, Ireland was finally granted freedom in 1937.

Phoebe tells me that in western Ireland there is still great bitterness toward the British, a large part of it because of the potato famine of 1845-48, in which as many as 1.5 million died and many more emigrated elsewhere.   Many of the British of the time saw these people as subhuman.  Paupers in workhouses built many unneccary stone walls which survive to this day.  If you wiki the potato famine, you will find a very disturbing and sad picture.  But that is later in the story of Ireland.  Now I am most interested in finding out information about the Harpers in Ireland before they emigrated to America.  I don't think I will have much success as Rick Harper spent a lot of time working on this.  But it would be interesting to know what life was like on the Ulster Plantation in the early 1700's.  Apparently 40 ships of Scots-Irish left Ireland from 1714-1720.

The only information I have comes from a book my dad gave me on the history of Harpersfield, New York, which says that James Harper, his wife Jennet Lewis, and their five children left because absentee landlords had tripled the rents on their tenant farms and that there was almost unbearable religious intolerance and economic repression for the Scots in Ireland.  They were to reexperience this intolerance when the family moved to Boston two years after they landed at Casco Bay, Maine.

More Family History

I have had guys here cleaning out the ducts and furnaces today, so it is a good excuse for further research, as they are spending most of the day here. Probably the most important discovery today was a new version of The Montgomery Manuscripts on Google, published in 2009 by Bill Montgomery. It has three references to Harper. It notes that the surname Harper is a common trade name. Harps and lyres are common in almost all cultures The oldest one was found in the ruins of ancient Sumer. The first evidence of a Gaelic harp dates back to the first century while the first evidence of a Scottish harp dates back to the 9th century. Apparently, the Scots surpassed the Irish in harp-playing at some point, according to Gerald of Wales. At the time of the Scottish enlightenment (David Hume, Adam Smith, etc.) the harpsichord became very popular. However, this is not a proper harp because the strings are not perpendicular to the soundboard. It is of the zither family, as is the piano.

Two Harpers were granted land in the Ulster Plantation, John Harper of Donaghdie and John Harper of Ballyhay. On May 1, 1613, Sir James Cunningham made a grant of 1000 acres, a portion of which went to John Harper. He was one of six granted a part of the quarter of Magherybegg, in Monagh (alias Ballyghan), in the precinct of Portlagh, baroney of Raphoe, County of Donegal. In 1629, the King of England granted the land back to the son of James Cunningham, also called James, who set up a manor called Fort Cunningham, and had the power to issue tenures. Thus, it appears that this Harper became a tenant farmer.

I discovered that Kilaloo is part of the Limavady area, where the John Harper who emigrated to America was born. Thus, I think that our family history geneology chart is wrong regarding the birthplaces of Mary Aken and Abigail Montgomery. Limivady is the birthplace of the song Londonderry Air, whose mournful tune was recorded as Danny Boy, my favorite old Irish song.

I need to read the book, but also have learned in another on-line book that three Montgomerys emigrated to America at the same time. William and Robert stayed and Hugh returned to Ireland. The original book was written by William Montgomery, grandson of the famous Hugh, who was born in about 1633, and was a very learned fellow.

The earlier reference to Beith, Scotland was borne out. The Montgomerys lived there for many years in the Broadstone Castle, which unfortunately no longer exists, as the area was cleared for a factory during the industrial revolution. Hugh was the 1st Viscount of Montgomery and the sixth Laird of Braidstone. The Montgomerys had a long-running feud with the Cunninghams. Hugh had apparently killed the head Cunningham after he had been insulted by running him through with a sword, but he survived. This feud went back to the 1400's. It will be interesting to see how it manifested itself in the early 1600's in Ireland.
 
Also, dear sister, the evidence appears strong that you are descended from Queen Isabella.  Hope that makes your book even more interesting (she is reading the account by Alison Weir).

Addendum:  "...The Scots who made the move to Ulster seem to have been a relatively balanced cross-section of the national population. At the upper end of the scale were small landowners and substantial tenants who saw the venture as an unprecedented opportunity for economic advancement... below this élite class was a broad social spread which included artisans and labourers as well as farm servants and cottars. Significantly for every four men, three women moved to Ulster... this was an important influence which helped to maintain the distinctive identity of the Ulster Scots..."


T.M Devine
Scotland's Empire 1600 - 1815
(London, 2003)

The Montgomery Family

I have learned that the Montgomery family was very powerful in the lowlands of Scotland.  Hugh Montgomery (1560-1636) had a farm in the North Ayrshire area of Scotland, probably between Ayr and Glasgow.  The town of Beith is mentioned somewhere.  In 1606 he moved much of the family to Northern Ireland, near the town of Aghadowey on the River Bann.  There they remained until they emigrated to Casco Bay, Maine, in 1718, along with John Harper, who married daughter Abigail Montgomery.

Rick Harper sent me a wonderful link to a pdf put together by Bill Montgomery.  You can find it at https://acrobat.com/#d=2LTvcBjDSTKfNIpaDc411Q.  I had to upgrade to Acrobat Reader 9.3 and join the free acrobat.com in order to view it.  Rick also gave me the e-mail to Mr. Montgomery, who has done a series of newsletters, and I am awaiting a response.  Based on the work on the pdf, I have great expectations.

The Harper trail dies out in Northern Ireland.  But I am interested in what caused Hugh Montgomery to emigrate to Ireland in 1606 and what caused him and James Harper, Jannet Lewis, and son John Harper (who would have been 13 years old at the time) to emigrate to America.   The Harpers moved to Boston after two years in Maine and were run out of town by Irish Catholics, in the never-ending dispute between Irish Prostestants and Catholics.  By the way, many in the Scottish lowlands had converted to Presbyterianism, while the Highlanders, who were very poor and violent, remained Catholics (or maybe Pagans).   The lowlanders were thus at odds with the Anglican church, as were the Puritans, and this was another religious division within Protestantism.  And, of course, many Scots were Calvinists, yet another division.  The border wars of the lowlands were fought not only against the English, but also against the Highlanders.

Addendum:  1606 was the year of the beginning of the migration of Scottish lowlanders to the Ulster Plantation in northern Ireland.  Check out this link.

Addendum 2:  Scots-Irish, who were Presbyterians, began emigrating from Ulster to America in 1717 due to the political agreement called the Anglican Protestant Assembly, which largely gave power to the Church of England and the Church of Ireland after William of Orange (who became King William of Britain after James was kicked out in 1689), despite the fact that they had fought on Williams side in one of the many wars.  Here is a wonderful post on Hugh Montgomery.

Addendum 3:  Joan Stewart was the child of James I, King of Scotland, who married Joan Beaufort.  She was known as Joan the Mute, and was married to James Douglas, Earl of Morton.  See pedigree chart here.  See here for Joan Stewart.

These addendums represent facts I have discovered today.  Very rewarding.  An account of the Glorious Revolution can be found in a book called Our First Revolution by Michael Barone.  It was of enormous importance to the founding of America.

Irish Roots

My current hypomanic state has shifted gears.  Last week we had our spring junk pickup by the county and I spent a lot of time with the chainsaw and clippers, filling up a bin.  My right shoulder did not really enjoy it, especially the last day when I dragged some hefty wood down the street.  I guess I am going to have to call a shoulder surgeon.

My sister-in-law, Phoebe, is in western Ireland at the moment.  You can follow her on the Kickinitpostsixty blog below.  And my sister is reading about Queen Isabella (of England, married to Edward II, a Plantagenet, in 1308).  I went to look up Isabella on ny ancestry.com geneology tree and she is there, which got me inspired to inquire and find out that I still have an account (automatically paid by credit card) and so spent hours yesterday fooling around.  And ended up ordering a Deluxe World account for a year.

The original Harpers came over in 1720 (I have a link to the Harper website below).  His son's name was John and he was married to Abigail Montgomery in the U.S. in 1728.  He is from the Londonderry area.  Abigail was from Killallo, in the county of Mayo, which I believe is also spelled Killala and is a small fishing village 6.5 miles northeast of Ballina.  This is where her mother, Mary Aken (or Aiken) was from, who was married to William Montgomery from Adhadowey, which is east of Londonderry in northern Ireland.  I am very interested in why these people emmigrated.

Reading lots of fascinating history and if this keeps up we will probably go to Ireland and Scotland next summer.  We think the Harpers came from Scotland, but the geneology stuff also shows a strong connection with Normans.  If you believe the OneWorldTree at ancestry.com, we are descended from William the Conqueror (1024-1087)(so is Tita--good thing we don't have kids), Hugh Capet (939-996), first king of France, Henry II of England (1133-1189) and Eleanor of Acquitane (1122-1204), whose grave I visited in Chinon, France, a beautiful place.  Not to mention Fulk the Black (967-1040) and Fulk the Rude (1043-1109), Counts of Anjou.

According to the tree, the Montgomeries came over from Scotland in about 1600.  Scots meet the Plantagenet descendants with the marriage of James I Stewart (1394-1437) born in Duferline, Scotland, with Joan Beaufort (1406-1445), from Westminster, Middlesex, England, producing daughter Joan Stewart (1428-1493), born in Perth, Scotland.  That line is all Scots up through the Montgomeries.  Probably nasty hill people.

By the way, Ireland is the only country in the world to have a musical instrument as its national emblem.  It is the harp.

Addendum:  Just read a short piece about Isabella and Edward II, who was not a likeable guy.  For particularly my sister, we are supposedly related through Edward III (1312-1377), John of Gaunt (1340-1399), John Beaufort (1371-1410), to his daughter Joan.

Addendum 2:  I e-mailed our family historian, Rick Harper, who has spent years trying to find original documents in Northern Ireland, collaborating with a Harper who lives there, with little success.  It seems doubtful that Montgomeries lived in Mayo County.  There is an area around Londonderry which is called "Killaloo."  I will bet they were from there as other Montgomeries were from Aghadowey.  Consequently, Rick says that he has "not really gone beyond general history finding out that rent-racking on 20 year land leases and difficulty in ever purchasing your own land was the root cause for relatively fast migration through Ulster from Scotland to North America. Usually the 'Scots-Irish' spent no more than one land lease of time in Northern Ireland before moving on to America. Before that, the Harper's were lowland Scots, primarly on the west coast and just above the English border. The border wars of the 16th and 17th Century were enough for many a lowland scot family to look for a better area to live."

So apparently, this line of "Irish" were Scots passing through on their way to America.

Skepticism, Politics and Attitude

I was sitting out on my deck some time ago watching the sunset and across the street behind the trees were a bunch of kids having some sort of get-together. There were probably six yelling at each other most of the time at the same time apparently nobody listening to each other. Very annoying and somehow indicative of our social fabric. I see this as a metaphor for the 24 hour news cycle and public discussion in politics.

Errol Morris recently had a five-part series of articles in the New York Times Opinionator called The Anosognosic’s Dilemma–Something’s Wrong but You Will Never Know What It Is. I’ve read it a couple times. Here is access to it. One idea that I cannot seem to convey to others regards the question of how we can know what we know. Or how much do we know? Or how we can know what we do not know? Or cannot know? I think Nassim Taleb is great and also entertaining on this stuff, particularly in The Black Swan, but below is an observation drawn from a discussion with the fascinating neuroscientist, V.S. Ramachandram:

“In Ramachandran’’s account, then, we are treated to the spectacle of different parts of the brain —— perhaps even different selves —— arguing with one another.

We are overshadowed by a nimbus of ideas. There is our physical reality and then there is our conception of ourselves, our conception of self —— one that is as powerful as, perhaps even more powerful than, the physical reality we inhabit. A version of self that can survive even the greatest bodily tragedies. We are creatures of our beliefs. This is at the heart of Ramachandran’’s ideas about anosognosia —— that the preservation of our fantasy selves demands that we often must deny our physical reality. Self-deception is not enough. Something stronger is needed. Confabulation triumphs over organic disease. The hemiplegiac’s anosognosia is a stark example, but we all engage in the same basic process. But what are we to make of this? Is the glass half-full or half-empty? For Dunning, anosognosia masks our incompetence; for Ramachandran, it makes existence palatable, perhaps even possible.”

Most people seem to find my skepticism unfathomable and depressing if taken seriously. However, as Morris’ discussion points out, the attitude you have is something you choose. I think that this is one of the attractive intellectual elements of buddhist thought. I am an optimist, but I really have no rational basis for this attitude.

This blog morphed out of an e-mail discussion with some friends on the issues of the day.  I found, of course, that I am basically a liberal. But I have my conservative sides. Anyone who is on the left must acknowledge the mistakes of past progressive intellectuals, and their incredible hubris, on thinking they had figured it out. But they ended up supporting Stalin, a monster. Here is a favorite part of a poem from Yeats called Slouching Toward Bethlehem. The future may be as dark as anything you can imagine.

Why History?

Why is history important? Things never happen exactly the same way twice. Historians cannot come up with laws of nature like physicists do (at least I assume that contrary views like Hegel’s are now discredited enough to be ignored). Even physicists cannot tell you what the world will look like in 10 years. That goes in spades for economists.

History can give you perspective. Just personal history, getting old, can give one perspective. Of course, you can become a cranky old ideologue.  When we gain knowledge about the crazy stuff that has happened in the past and the complexity of events, you can better realize all the possible futures that are out there. That said, those giants who understand a historical period, say J.H. Elliott about Spain or Tony Judt about postwar Europe, have a breadth of knowledge that one could never equal unless he were starting young and was very very smart. These guys know the events, the characters, the folk tales, the art...pretty much all the elements that let you understand a culture.

So what is one to do in light of our profound ignorance and lack of capability? As a good friend said last night, everyone can do something positive to make the world a better place. When I was younger, I was an idealist left-wing lawyer out to bend the government to do the right thing through class-action lawsuits. When it became clear that such attempts were futile, that the government didn’t really change much no matter how many lawsuits we won, what was left? Well, there are lots of individuals in whose lives I can make a profound difference. Obviously, there are people who make much larger contributions. But if most of us make some positive contribution, the world will more likely be a better place in the future, just as it is a better place for us in general now than it was for our ancestors.

Political "discussions"

The five favorite explanations for events involving political issues:
(1) Too much government
(2) It is Bush and Reagan's fault
(3) It is Obama's fault
(4) It is the liberals fault
(5) It is the fault of large corporations

Personal note:  For some reason, I got very involved in thinking about the political issues of the day in the last year.  No more.  Wait six months and reporting will give you an idea of what happened.  Wait 10-20 years and historians will have gotten access to the priviliged documents and memoirs and will have given a more accurate and detached view.  I've lost interest in the yelling and talking heads, other than the band, which is still great rock and roll.

Travel and Brain Chemistry

This is the worst jet lag I’ve ever had. It is ironic because the transition going to Europe was the easiest ever. It helped that we traveled first class (had free tickets from frequent flyer miles) and we had a relatively new plane that let you assume a flat position. I took an ambien and slept five hours on the way to London. Voila! The first few nights home I hardly slept and then I tried ambien again and felt hungover and it has alternated between these extremes since. One night I woke up completely wide awake after an hour and took an ambien. Last night I stupidly tried a muscle relaxer, forgetting that I took one in Florence and was zonked. I envy those people who can fall asleep easily on a plane. I would never make it in working on-the-road and salute the Willy Lomen who manage to do it.

Someday I will write about my experience with prednisone-induced mania. Of course, if steroids can do that you probably have a tendency that way. My body is beginning to feel like it did then, tired all the time. Yesterday I bonked on a relatively easy hike. My brain can do repetitious tasks but cannot really do something like read a book. This is really crimping my style at the moment. The best book I read on bipolar disorder was An Unquiet Mind by Kay Redfield Jamison (my copy long ago disappeared; borrowed and not returned). It helps give one a small sense of mental illness; it is not fun most of the time although manic euphoria can be wonderful even while making you incompetent. But it is very tiring and I hope I sleep tonight naturally. Tita hardly had a migraine headache while we were gone and now she is having them regularly again. Brain chemistry is weird. Maybe next time we will get a one-way ticket to Europe.

Here are lessons from this trip so I can look them up before next time. Traveling by auto on the back roads is wonderful. You really see things you would not otherwise like picturesque little villages where things have not changed in forever. I have never been a fan of the A-routes (super-freeways) but decided this time I am going to take them on longer jaunts in the future. I can drive the back roads when we get close to wherever we are going. I also want to experiment with the trains but no overnighters; thank you R and J for that advice. A room with a lot of natural light and at least one comfortable chair is a must and a view is a terrific luxury. If we stay in a nice hotel in the country again that has a restaurant we will get “full-board,” meaning that we will include dinner in the restaurant hotel. In Venice at La Calcina and in Radda at Relais Fattoria Vignale the restaurants had wonderful food and great views to boot. We had the best asparagus and risotto of the trip in Radda, which is something given the many nice restaurants we went to in Florence with Rick and Jackie.

I can see sharing a villa or an apartment again but it is hard to imagine taking the chance with many other people. Luckily, we both did our own thing during the day except for the wonderful vineyard wine-tasting trip Rick booked. Truly a memorable experience. I shipped half a case back to Rick’s house because our backward state does not allow you to directly ship wine home. The Chianti Classico was wonderful and we also have some even better Super Tuscan coming. I try to get Chianti here complete with the pick ribbon and the black rooster but so far not so good, while paying much more. It is hard to go back to drinking American coffee again after Cappucino, but we live in the new world. I did not miss following the news. We left with a huge oil spill and returned to a much bigger one. What else happened? I guess a watered-down financial bill passed...big surprise. But you may have ascertained my change in attitude after all these months of blogging. Been there, done that. Time to move on to something more interesting.

As much as we love auto travel in Europe, I cannot see traveling by car with anyone but Tita. I love the planning and trying to get around without too many mishaps and do a lot of research. Sorry, I don’t need more opinions on what to do. Tita and I always have a marvelous time on the road. We have just the right amount of planning and flow. Next European vacation we will do more of this. But I have to recover from this trip first. Maybe we will finally drive around New England next year and visit my sister and the haunts of our ancestors, particularly Harpersfield, New York. The French and Indian wars are fascinating history. But enough blathering for now. Even racing minds wear down.

Goodbye Italy

The Italy trip has ended and we are readjusting to “normal” life. We both have three days to decompress, so it is not a painful process–one thing we have learned from international travel is to take some time off after we get home.

It feels good to be home. The forest is alive and flowers are blooming on the mountain. The cats are snuggling and strutting and Fred is squawking. It seems like being away for awhile helps me realize how much I love this house. We were initially sold on the location, the wrap-around deck and the kitchen and its great room extension, which now has a large bookcase, couch and chair for reading. The previous owners had done a marvelous job of remodeling the kitchen and a decent job of remodeling the master bathroom. Our friends Mike and Andy remodeled the living room and put hardwood floors there and in the dining area. We also added some new light fixtures and then had a wall-length wood armoire built in the master bedroom (which previously had no closet).

The trip was a great adventure and came off as flawlessly as can be expected. We love northern Italy, as well as France and Spain. My favorite day on this trip was the day we spent driving around Chianti while we were staying in a very nice hotel/restaurant in the hilltop town of Radda (where we had the best asparagus and risotto of the trip). I always love Florence but we decided that on our next trip we will spend much more time in the country. London was very interesting, mostly because of British history, although I have no great desire to go back. We also enjoyed Venice and Ferrara for their preserved medieval nature. Next time we go to Italy I am thinking we will limit Florence to 2-3 days and not stay right in the heart of town, stay and hike in Cinque Terre, spend more time in Chianti–perhaps staying in Cortona and visiting the mountaintop village wine meccas of Montepulciano and Montalcino, home to Nobile and Brunello. Chianti Classico was wonderful and our tour of the vineyards, especially Montecchio, is something we will never forget. Thanks to Rick for organizing that expedition, and we enjoyed our many conversations and dinners with he and Jackie. Other places I would like to see include Lake Cuomo and the Alba/Asti region of Piedmont, home to other great wines.

I finished my book on the Borgias a couple days before we left Venice. It took me over at some point and was enhanced by our visit to Ferrara. Now I am reading The Pursuit of Glory; The Five Revolutions That Made Modern Europe 1648-1815. It is an immense tome laden with interesting facts and theories, so I am skipping around a bit. At about 700 pages, the book is a bit daunting. But the more history I read, the more I realize how much I don’t know, which is both humbling and exciting. There are many great adventures ahead.

Venice

I am surprised by all the negative comments about Venice. The city is wonderful, especially if you love to walk. No cars and trucks and none of their noise! Yesterday we walked from our hotel near the Zattere water bus stop in Dorsoduro to the Piazalle Roma, visiting a great Franciscan church on the way. Then we took a water bus down the length of the Grand Canale to San Marcos, where we had lunch. Then we walked back over the Rialto bridge through the Mercato to Piazza Santa Marguerita, where we had a glass of wine and stocked up at the grocery store (supermercato).

The auto worked out nicely. We dropped it off at the airport and took a water bus to a half block of our room, a lovely little apartment connected with the Hotel La Calcina. Highly recommended hotel. Our major misadventure with the auto was entering Ferrara on the day of a large celebration. Our hotel was in the historic district overlooking the Estense castle, and the entire area was blocked off to traffic due to the celebration, which went on for hours, complete with locals parading in medieval dress. I thought the hotel would be easy to find, but their historical district is huge. We parked the car several kilometers from our destination, got some vague directions and walked. The city was quite beautiful and we returned later to get our vehicle. Then getting through the maze of narrow one-way and pedestrian-only streets presented another challenge.

Our drive to Ferrara was unnecessarily long as I wanted to travel on roads other than the autostradda. My comment on the Po Valley is flat and food as far as the eye can see. We did not stop at Ravenna, which on the outskirts was very industrial. Tita wanted to stop at a beach on the Adriatic and she was very disappointed. I no longer expect anything from European beaches. They are overrun with people and tacky buildings, reminding too much of my own country. Europeans are silly for going to the beach at every opportunity. Boring. If you want to see the sea, go to a cliff for a much better view.

Tomorrow we return to our own villa on Mt. Olympus. It has been a wonderful trip, but we are ready to return home. Tita's friend Daria has been taking very good care of our cats. She sent a picture of Fred today that made me want to give him some hugs.

We will hopefully come back to this beautiful country. There are still many places I want to go. Already planning the next trip. Arrivederci.

Radda in Chianti

We managed to get our car and get out of Firenze and onto highway 222 (the Chianti highway) and to Radda without any wrong turns yesterday! We must have been very lucky. A spectacular drive through the heart of Chianti country. We had lunch at the same roadside restaurant outside Castellano in Chianti as we did on our last visit. Got checked in before a rainstorm hit and then to a short loop drive throught the mountain city of Valpolaia (sp?) before another rain. After Valpolaia, the road became dirt. We saw one other vehicle and almost no signs of humans other than some cut trees. It is somewhat surprising that much of Chianti is heavily wooded and not developed. The soil is hard and rocky, so may not be much good other than for grapes and olives, which thrive in this climate. The rolling hills keep it somewhat sheltered in the winter, when it can get quite cool, down to the twenties. They get snow. Chianti Classico wine is not irrigated. The soil holds in the moisture of the spring rains in spite of the fact that it can get quite warm.

Today we are going on a short driving tour. I have given up the idea of getting to Montelpulciana and Maltacino, the source of the other two most famous local wines, Nobile and Brunella. A drive of 2 hours should be enough sightseeing and Tita wants to hike. The hotel Fattiora Vignale is quite comfortable, with a restaurant overlooking a valley where we had dinner last night and breakfast today. Radda is an old hill town and quite beautiful. Apparently, Italians built these hill towns for defense as there really was no Italy until Garibaldi helped unite it, I think in about 1860. They were ruled by city states and regional powers, and the church, before that.

After a very good sleep (no traffic or partying could be heard) and a relaxing bath, we wandered across the street for our breakfast (which comes with the room; called half-board). First I had a cup of cappucino, which was sublimely intoxicating, follwed by yogurt, juice and pastries. That will probably do me until dinner with some snacking on cheese, bread and meats in between.

The countryside is beautiful beyond description. The pictures I will post also cannot capture it...ethereal, peaceful and alive with life, populated by old stone villas thinly spread and small villages. Tomorrow we are heading for Ferrara. I will probably drive through Arezzo to the highway (I think 3b) through the Appenines (mountains) to Ravenna. We will see how long this takes before adding any other excursions. Three hours in a car in a day is plenty. The next day we head for Venice, dropping off the car at the airport and taking the boat to a stop close to our apartment.

We have vowed on our next trip to spend much more time in the countryside. As well as finally hiking Cinque Terra. Tita probably needs knee surgery before we do that, although she did manage to climb the 463 steps each way up to the top of the Duomo and down...but was quite stiff at the end. There is a view of the interior of the dome where the massive frescoes start (I think painted by Vasari), depicting heaven and hell. It is really quite a construction. Brunellischi had to invent some very impressive devices and techniques to finally accomplish its construction, but that is a long story for another time.

Today we explore the hills of Tuscany. Buon Giorgno.

The Dream Continues

Being on vacation in Europe is like living a dream. Yesterday we had a private wine tour to two vineyards with lunch in between and gelato in the small town of San Donato after. It was fascinating to see how wine is made and to receive a wine-tasting lesson from our host at the Metrecchio vineyard, Arianna. Our tour guide and driver, Julio, was a gregarious Tuscan who spoke English with a very pronounced Italian accent and had a sharp sense of humor. He loves his dog, wine, food and most things about Tuscany and has a small B £ B outside of Florence that we may visit next time. Our lunch was unexpectedly slow and so we were late arriving at the second vineyard, whose center was a 13th century castle. Julio said it was the place where cavaliers met from the states of Siena and Florence (Firenze) to mark their border, as it would be the place where they would meet after leaving their cities on horseback at sunrise. Later it was determined that the representative of Firenze left two hours early, to the continuing disappointment of Siena today. The symbol of Chianti Classico wine is the black rooster, which is a reminder that the rooster of Firenze does not really know what time it is and crows before sunrise (and lots of other times).

Being in such a place helps to remind one that every day is a gift. You can make something interesting and enjoyable about every day if you choose. Sometimes, illness or other troubles make this difficult, but it can be done. My friend Jackie says that the key is to focus on what you have, not what you have lost. I like that. We are sharing our apartment (see www.vrbo.com/50703) with my old friends Rick and Jackie. Tita and I barely awoke and already they are out on the town. Having one couple of early risers and one of sleepers can work out wonderfully. Of course, this is if you value private time, something that in my world goes without saying.

Today, we are going to the Academy at 1 p.m. to see Michaelangelo's David, among other pieces. We are also going to get a reservation for the Uffizi for tomorrow, truly one of the great galleries in the world, that has a chronological exposition of painting that helps display the enourmous advances of the Renaissance. I recall the last time there how forcefully Michaelangelo's Doni Tondo struck me. We also intend to revisit the Duomo and climb to the top past the ceiling depicting heaven and hell. I am reading a wonderful little book now called Bruschellini's Dome by Ross King, which will add to the interest. My favorite experiences in town thus far have been a visit to the Santa Maria Novella church and a hike up to San Miniato al Monte for a glorious view of the city.

Our apartment overlooks the Arno and the Ponte Vecchi bridge. It is hard to imagine a better location. Of course, when traveling here one should keep in mind how noisy the city can be. Next time I think we will choose a quieter but not so scenic place.

Unfortunately, I have not figured out how to transfer pictures from Tita's I-phone to my blog, so pictures will continue to be posted on Facebook. A pickpocket nabbed my digital camera while we were in London but I have another at home which is just as good (a funny story about being manic could be inserted here). So we will go with what we've got. I do have my eye on a very nice leather coat, though. I wish their consumption taxes were no so high but in the end I may splurge. The Italians do wonderful things with leather.

It is time to slowly move into our day. A little reading this morning before we head out for the sightseeing is in order. Ciao.

Florence

We managed to make it to London six days ago barely ahead of a volcanic ash termination of flights, and managed to fly to Florence yesterday three days ahead of a proposed strike by British Airways employees. We feel lucky. And we only got a spit of rain in London, although I am convinced that when a sunny day is forecast that it means you will see at least 10 minutes of sunshine. Florence is, as usual, gloriously sunny with temperatures in the upper seventies, so I was finally able to unpack shorts.

Our apartment overlooks the Arno and the Ponte Vecchio and is quite comfortable. We lost the coin flip and got the bedroom on the street side of the apartment, where there was party noise throughout the night and far too much traffic. Rick and I sat up until past midnight sharing wine and wisdom, both of which seem to have disappeared. Sleeping beauty continues her somnomulence at 10:15. Wish I could sleep so easily through noise.

Highlights of London were visits to the Tower, Westminister Abbey and the British Museum, along with numerous walks through the city. The subway, nicknamed "the tube," was clean and efficient. Yesterday, we took the train to Gatwick airport for our Meridianna flight here. These old European cities reek of history and I finished Our First Revolution by Michael Barone about the history surrounding the Glorious Revolution in England in 1688-89, a far more important precursor to our own revolution than I ever imagined. I am now reading The Borgias and Their Enemies by Christopher Hibbert, which takes place in the late 1400's and early 1500's in Italy. All these people dueling for power were quite ruthless and violent. Dick Cheney would have fit right in. I am telling you that shotgun incident was no accident.

I trust nothing much has changed in the States. I don't miss hearing about the Tea Party. Buon Giorgno.

Blog Off

I am taking a month leave from the blog. Bored with it and need to do something new. Feel free to comment on where you think the blog should go.

Change

It is time for a change of direction. I am abandoning a focus on current issues such as immigration, health care reform and financial reform. I’ve learned a lot but the fact is that most of what is out there in the media is superficial. I watched NBC news reporting on the oil spill last night and then watched some of a segment of PBS which was far more nuanced and informative, but then which was followed up by a “discussion” between somebody from Greenpeace and someone from The American Petroleum Institute. This is cheap phony journalism. Present two extremists and act like what you are doing is balanced. Guaranteed noise.

I also watched Carl Wimmer (a Utah state senator) slinging around statistics on Hispanics committing crime and I got ill. The statistics were bogus. For instance, out of a sample of 18 people who committed homocide last year, 9 were Hispanic, 2 were non-Hispanic and 7 were other, he drew the conclusion that 81% of violent crimes are committed by Hispanics. A more relevant statistic to the issue of illegal immigration is how many illegal immigrants are there in the state prison. The figure is 5%.

Politics reminds me of the long dispute between the Guelphs and the Ghibellines in medieval Italy. It really made no logical sense but people had to be on one side or the other. Face it. We humans are not as smart as we think we are.

Perhaps this blog may go. It has been a fun experiment. I at least think I need to take some time off. And instead of reading other blogs in the morning, take a walk up Neff’s Canyon. Spring is here and it is time for rebirth.

Immigration II

It appears that the final version of the Arizona law states that race should not be a factor in questioning someone. Of course, is that how the law will really be enforced? Should enforcement be as immigration status is checked at borders; that is, everyone is checked? Megan is right that you may not see so many white people supporting the law any more. But also, what is a person supposed to produce to show he/she is a U.S. citizen? Most people do not have passports. Driver's licenses are easily faked.

Lots of immigrants are here legally and we should welcome them. Many come here for our university system allowing us to cherry-pick the best and brightest from around the world. They play by the rules. Those are the true immigrants. The rest are trespassers. Unless you don't think that states should have the right to limit the number of people coming into their country. Who really believes that?

But bottom line is that I do not see how this is a good law without solving the ID issue. I need to find out what the law actually says about this.

We also need to make sure that those we do invite to stay have the capacity to become part of the culture, which partly means being able to find a job and given tools to learn the language.

Addendum: Frank Rich's column in the Sunday Times, while identifying a troubling amount of racism that has been here all along, does not address this law. 59% of Tea Party members do not believe Obama was born in the U.S. What about the other 41%? What are their reasons for being a member of the Tea Party? It is amazing how many people have jumped so quickly into two camps with the passage of this law. On the other hand, there is a nice article by Doris Meisner in the Washington Post today rebutting myths held about immigration. The link is so long that I cannot read all of it.

Immigration

The blogosphere is alive with talk about the new Arizona law. Megan (with a libertarian argument against the law), Ezra, James Fallows, Paul Krugman yesterday, etc. This issue is going to go away. The lesson we learned last time is that the populace is not going to allow any law that gives a path to citizenship to someone who is here illegally. "Undocumented immigrants?" Sorry fellow liberals, I think this is misleading. They are undocumented because they are illegally here. Here Krugman makes the point that if we want a safety net, we cannot afford to include the whole world. My favorite comment was by a commenter on Fallows blog who points out that the French have a national ID card (as well as Communist China). Do conservatives really want to be like the French?

But just because a number of people who favor the law are racist, it does not mean that there are not good conservative arguments. That is a form of ad hominem argument, one which Leonard Pitts made the other day in the op-ed section. Krugman also engages in superficial type-casting at the end of his piece.

In a similar vein, NBC news last night reported on a new $90,000 prostrate treatment and said it raised ethical problems because not everyone could afford it. A good friend pointed out when I was thinking about health care reform that no one was talking about the big issue: what basic level of health care should be provided to everyone? Money does not grow on trees.

Addendum: I should add that I am not making a comment about this particular law. I have not thought about it sufficiently. Megan makes some very good points about whether everyone would welcome the probable intrusions by police. Others say that what matters is how it is enforced. These seem right. Another question is whether there is a better way. And I don't really understand what people in Arizona experience as a result of illegal immigration. I am just saying that it is unlikely that we will get a national immigration law. There is too much diviseness on the issue. And frankly, I don't think immigration is all that important as a national issue or global issue.

Another addendum: I read somewhere in the Times that conservatives do not favor a national ID card, which partly shows how little I know about "conservative thought." What then? The army on the border? Sounds pretty expensive to me.

Naked Capitalism

I want to give a huge shout out to Yves Smith's blog Naked Capitalism and also to her book Econned. The book is slow reading but it seems essential to me to understand what was going on on Wall Street. Here is a particularly good article on Goldman. The comments are also interesting. And here is a very good article on Goldy by Steve Randy Waldman at Interfluidity.

There are some great books coming out now about the financial crisis and Washington is even getting excited. It is too bad that more people don't really understand this stuff (including said politicians). But I am cheered by the fact that Michael Lewis' The Big Short is now the number one nonfiction bestseller. Jonah Lehrer has a piece today at The Frontal Cortex about psychopathic behavior. The Goldy boys looked like the type to me.

Mainstream media

Are you tired of the simple-minded arguments between the right and the left about mainstream media? The media is liberal. All mainstream media is owned by large corporate interests and so they feed us the capitalist lies that support their infinite greed for profits. Here is a very good article that gets into the very complex reality of the issue. People want to make money and they want to watch interesting stuff. Media content is not so easily analyzed.

Risk Models

It has been quite apparent to me that the ways used by Wall Street to model risk are seriously deficient. John Cassidy states the conclusions from his intended talk tonight on Rational Irrationality. The first person who discussed this stuff and totally blew me away was Nassim Taleb in The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness (first published in 2004!). Yves Smith has an excellent discussion in Chapter 3 of Econned. Wall Street execs say well, it is a useful tool. This is total bullshit because it doesn't take into account fat tails. If you don't know what that means and care, do some reading. It is about statistics, so some mathematician can correct me if I am wrong.

I do not believe that with all the quants that big firms had employed they did not know this. However, you have to take into account that Black and Scholes who received Nobel Prizes (as my conservative friends point out, so did Barack Obama--I love the guy but Nobel Prize no way) based a hedge fund on these concepts (Long Term Capital Management) which blew up in 1998 and had to be rescued by the Fed. I imagine they ended up very rich despite losing all their clients' money.

I greatly enjoyed see the Goldman boys squirm today. These Wall Street guys make me sick. They were totally disingenuous. Great political theatre.

OCD

Obsessive-compulsive disorder. My wife, who has great insight into human behavior, likes to say I have some OCD going on. I looked it up in the DSM and I don't think so. But maybe I just have OCD with poor insight. I don't see the compulsive part at all, but you be the judge. We are often Strangers to Ourselves (the title of a great book by Timothy Wilson, which was the inspiration for Malcolm Gladwell's Blink, the latter of which I believe was legitimately criticized by Robert Burton in On Being Certain)....(I wish I could remember what that criticism was; this getting old stuff is not for perfectionists.)

Now, OCD personality disorder is another matter. "Shows perfectionism that interferes with task completion." Although I wrote several 50-60 page papers in grad school, I never finished my dissertation. My advisor kept telling me I didn't have to write a publishable book but I didn't really get it. Then I chose a topic that nobody could have written a coherent exposition of, Critical Legal Studies, because the movement itself was incoherent. Oh well. I didn't really want to be a teacher anyway and what else can you do with a philosophy degree?

Maybe that explains getting obsessed with the financial crisis and reading a gob of books and articles on it. Oh yeh, I did that with health care reform, too. Before that it was reading history. At one point, it was my work. Luckily, I didn't really want to be a lawyer, either, so I chose to specialize in one area which had interesting stuff about medicine--disability law. But the good thing about being OCD is that I tried to read everything and figure out everything about it. That is what a real education does. I know many lawyers who never try to figure things out. But they can fool a lot of innocent clients. Kind of reminds me of time-share salesmen.

Golf is another example. I played as a kid and then didn't take it up until age 43. Immediately got obsessed and improved greatly for a period of time before I actually started getting worse (golf is amazing that way). Or skiing. I didn't ski until I was almost 30 but then within a year ended up moving to Utah working in a ski resort and skiing every day. Despite having new skis and boots, I didn't ski at all this year.

Maybe I'll figure this out some day but I gotta go wash my hands.

don't worry, Be Happy

I am done blogging on banking until the political theatre is over. However, you may have reacted to my previous post by wondering how the economics profession gets blamed for anything? The answer is the same as the failure of all social sciences during the positivist phase; they tried to be a natural science. In Econ's case, they got seduced by math. Psychology, which was my original interest in college, until I learned it was about training rats, got sucked into behaviorism. In both cases, it involves leaving out important parts of what they are studying.

Here is a wonderfully pithy review mocking tbe arrogance of Reason in positivist thinking. Glad I gave up analytic philosophy but then I was mediocre at it, although Quine had me seduced for awhile. The real world is way more interesting. This also reflects what bugs me about Richard Dawkins' view on religion. My dear atheist friends: the lesson is to be agnostic. Not only will it better reflect your epistemic position in the world but you will be able to get along with the wonderful theists who actually think, and who make the world a better place.

Here is Jeremy Grantham's newsletter. Pretty wonky but some important insights. To surf the bubble and jump off before it bursts, and then never invest in equities again.

And finally, here is a fun review of a book on Ayn Rand, who also seduced me in my youth. If only Alan Greenspan was more reflective we would all be a lot better off today.

9/18

I vividly remember watching the tv all day September 18, 2008. I had it tuned to CNBC, which I usually can't stand because they are lapdogs of Wall Street. Not to mention composed of obnoxious blowhards. But I was watching the financial sector go bankrupt. It was a combination of horror and curiosity, something like I felt on 9/11/01. We were leaving for Spain in a couple days and every night during the trip I was compelled to turn on CNN International to see what was going on.

As Yves Smith explains in enormous detail in Econned and continues to explain on her blog Naked Capitalism, it was "the greatest theft from the public purse in history." This came at the end of more than 30 years of manipulation of the rules of the game for the financiers, including extensive deregulation greased by a simple-minded philosophy. Not only had the banksters accomplished regulatory capture and capture of all the branches of government (including the law), they accomplished cognitive capture of the population, with the help of the economics profession.

The bill that will pass this weak will be a 1300 page watered-down piece of nothing. We better get used to it. As Yves says, "this campaign has been far too consistent and calculated to brand it with the traditional label, "spin."...Only when we the public are able to call the underlying realities by their proper names--extortion, capture, looting, propaganda--can we begin to root them out."

It is what it is. Have a nice week.

Mr Grumpus

Feeling a little grumpy today. I think it has something to do with the book I am loving now (Econned), which paints a very realistic but hideous picture of Wall Street. I'm quite sure my brain was ruminating on it while I slept. It is probably time for a hike and it is a beautiful day following three very crappy days, including snow yesterday. Tita is working part of the day so I am going to laze around here until she gets home to hike. The Blackhawks game, which is very important with the series tied at 2-2 in on today at 1, but I can't stand to watch tv during the day, especially a nice day, so I am going to tape it and watch later.

Fred the cat was just squawking at me so I gave him some attention and now he is a happy boy, but I anticipate that he will be walking in front of the computer monitor soon. He also loves to sit on something you are reading. They are such little narcissists that they are cute; it's all about them. Reminds me of big bankers and politicians. One good note, however. Robert Khuzami, the new head prosecutor of the enforcement division of the SEC, is apparently a fearless smart guy who has taken on the mob and terrorists despite threats to his family. My fantasy of the lawyer who can't be bought bringing some justice to the world warms the spirit but I will probably be disappointed. We know Goldman Sacks won't go to trial. Too much dirt would come out. I hope the SEC does not settle with them, however. Make them pay the fine and then lets see if we have some criminal proceedings in the works. All the people who have lost their jobs or portions of their retirement savings because of those jerks might get some small satisfaction.

A quote from my new book: "history is the long and tragic story of the fact that privileged groups seldom give up their privileges voluntarily." Do you know who said that? Or here is another one a blogger wrote about Wall Street: "if they were half as smart as they think they are, they would be 10 times as smart as they are."

A bold prediction for the upcoming week of political theatre. The parties will be loudly bickering with each other but eventually will come up with a bipartisan compromise on a watered-down version of the Dodd bill, which will do some good, but which is already hopelessly too weak. The bankers will go home happy and ready to blow up the economy again and the politicians will continued to be hated by everybody.

Addendum April 27: the author of first quote was Martin Luther King.

Global Warming

Keynes famously remarked that in the long run we are all dead. The recent volcanic activity in Iceland should help remind us why. A very powerful volcanic eruption would result in what has become to be known as a "nuclear winter;" that is, the earth would be covered by a cloud of dust so thick that it would cause massive drops in temperature and end most life (some bacteria can survive almost anything), which is also what would happen in the event of a nuclear war. An asteroid collison could do the same thing.

However, eventually the molten core of the earth will cool down, eliminating volcanoes, but putting earth into a deep freeze. The glacier that once covered New York City was twice as tall as the Empire State Building. The entire earth will be covered in extreme cold. Goodbye humans.

Now it seems entirely correct that global warming has been occurring over the last 300 years and it is most likely due to carbon emissions and the destruction of forests so that people can farm (causing a shortage of carbon-dioxide-eating life). In the relatively short run this is going to cause some problems, such as to make my friends' beachfront property uninhabitable.

It is interesting that humans have become a species-loving life form. For most of their short history, most humans never traveled more than a few miles from home and didn't really care what happened to other humans. At some point in the recent past, humans starting forming their identities around being a member of a nation group...really a much bigger tribe. And then within the national identity, shortly after becoming a nation, Americans became followers of political parties. So identifying with a species is really quite a step. And some people can even identify with other life forms. But 99% of every species that has ever existed has become extinct. And we will get there, probably long before the lava cools down. Carpe diem. It may not be around tomorrow.

Addendum: This post should be read while playing The Humans Are Dead by Flight of the Conchords.

Banksters in Jail?

Here is a post on the civil case vs. Goldman Sachs. Here is a post that I think goes toward explaining this complicated mess. And here is an e-mail from a Wall Street insider. I am off to buy Econned.

You know this crap is going to be swept under the rug. Remember the Salt Lake olympics scandal. Never saw the light of day in spite of a lawsuit. And think about this: how much does it cost taxpayers for the FDIC to wind down ordinary failed banks?

Addendum: Not sure why the second two links are not working. Go to Naked Capitalism and read CDO Markets-Rife with Collusion and Manipulation? and E-Mails from Mordor.

Addendum: The FDIC has taken over about 200 banks since the beginning of 2009. The S & L crisis cost taxpayers about 150 billion back in the 80's. I suppose McConnell would call these bailouts. Wonder what the cost of this meltdown will be?

Dodd Not Enough

Mike Konczal at Rortybomb has a useful post today on what we should want from financial reregulation. It is clear that the Dodd bill is not enough. However, the way the political theatre is working out, will we see even a weaker version of Dodd passed with bipartisan support? I can readily see this happening. We need a stronger verions of the Lincoln derivatives bill and the Brown-Kaufman SAFE banking act, and the Volcker Rule (a new version of Glass-Steagall) for three things.

Here is an article by George Soros arguing for much stronger regulation of derivatives. It raises the question once again; what are these things good for? Other than taking money out of one pocket and putting it into another with the possible result that the whole world economy will blow up?

Finally, here is a very good article from Paul Krugman and Robin Wells. Below I quote the conclusion.

Now that the multiple bubbles have burst, there’s obviously a strong case for a return to much stricter regulation. It’s by no means clear, however, whether this will actually happen. For one thing, the ideology used to justify the dismantling of regulation has proved remarkably resilient. It’s now an article of faith on the right, impervious to contrary evidence, that the crisis was caused not by private-sector excesses but by liberal politicians who forced banks to make loans to the undeserving poor. Less partisan leaders nonetheless fret over the possibility that regulation might crimp financial innovation, even though it’s very hard to find examples of such innovation that were clearly beneficial (ATMs don’t count).

Equally important, the financial industry’s political power has not gone away. Banks have waged a fierce campaign against what many expected to be an easily passed reform proposal, the creation of a new agency to protect financial consumers. Despite the steady drumbeat of scandalous revelations—most recently, the discovery that Goldman Sachs helped Greece cook its books, while Lehman cooked its own books—top financial executives continue to have ready access to the corridors of power. And as many have noted, President Obama’s chief economic and financial officials are men closely associated with Clinton-era deregulation and financial triumphalism; they may have revised their views but the continuity remains striking.

In that sense, this time really is different: while the first great global financial crisis was followed by major reforms, it’s not clear that anything comparable will happen after the second. And history tells us what will happen if those reforms don’t take place. There will be a resurgence of financial folly, which always flourishes given a chance. And the consequence of that folly will be more and quite possibly worse crises in the years to come.

Addendum: My use of the term "derivative" here is too simple. A derivative is an instrument whose value depends on a different underlying asset. Futures and options are perfectly good and helpful derivatives. Credit default swaps? Collateralized debt obligations?

Bankster Blogging

Here is a very interesting post by Felix Salmon. Just when I think I have somewhat of a handle on this stuff, it just gets more complicated. I may have to read Yves Smith's book Econned. Her website is Naked Capitalism.

Although Blanche Lincoln's derivatives bill has gotten typified as suprising tough on derivatives, the Times editorial today argues that it does not go far enough and has too many loopholes. And Simon likes the Brown-Kaufman bill which would limit the size of banks. We actually had rule like that in 1994 but the banks have managed to get around it. He also reports that a study has shown that there is no international advantage to a bank over 100 billion dollars.

These sorts of bills are going to be strongly opposed by the big banks. They make a lot of money structuring derivatives. It will be interesting to see how the politics plays out. Nobody wants to cross the populist anger at the bankers.

The complexity of this stuff also makes one realize that we cannot hope that regulators will figure this stuff out. The SEC couldn't even catch the Madoff and Stanford ponzi schemes. When their attorneys routinely move into the banking sector and make millions, it is hard to see even why they will continue to be motivated (although I've heard stuff about the new guy...can't remember his name--Kussomething). Expecting the Fed to regulate the mortgage industry is another pipe dream.

The Bank Bill

I know I said I would stop writing about this, but most of my favorite bloggers are writing about it. And the big question is whether something positive will be achieved. I'm thinking it is coming down to Obama's speech tomorrow night to see what we can hope for.

In the interests of the open exchange of ideas, Paul Krugman and Tyler Cowen (in yesterday's Marginal Revolution) both disagree with Simon Johnson, Mike Konczal and me that we ought to break up the big banks. See also this discussion in today's N.Y. Times.

Roger Lowenstein raises the very good question of what useful purpose is there allowing people to bet through synthetic collateralized debt obligations.

What caused the financial crisis? Large banks and shadow banks, who were in bed with the ratings agencies, demanded more and more mortgages that they could repackage into bonds, to satisfy large investors who did not understand the risks, and so unregulated mortgage originators found new and novel ways to loan money to people who really could not afford to buy homes. When they ran out of mortgages, Wall Street constructed synthetic bonds, which greatly magnified the risks to the system. Fannie and Freddie, who had become private profit-driven entities, but still implicitly backed by the federal government, helped facilitate even more loans. All this was abetted by regulators such as the SEC and the Fed, failing in their jobs.

A few people, such as John Paulson, Michael Burry and Steve Eisman saw the doom on the horizon and bet against the system using credit default swaps. Eventually, the big boys at Goldman and Deutche Bank (led by Greg Lippman) saw the tsunami, too. Most of us were still drinking the kool-aid when it hit.

I lost a lot of money I had invested for retirmenent. A lot of people have lost their jobs. Taxpayers where made to foot the bill for Wall Street risk-taking. Bankers were given large bonuses for phony profits. And on and on. We fixed the system in the 1930's. The fixes over time were worn away by collusion between the banking lobby and Congress and innovations in finance. Time to fix it again.

Addendum: Here the Senate agriculture committee just passed Lincoln's tough bill on derivatives. This article gives an acccount of why and gives me some hope.

Empathy Lesson

Saturday was a beautiful day and I got together with three good friends to walk 18 holes at Bonneville golf course. The course surrounds a baseball field and a tennis center, and both were full. You could hear the crack of a bat and kids cheering at the ball diamond at various times. A road runs through the course and it is a favorite place for bikers, runners and walkers. Everyone was out enjoying the spring sunshine and a person would have to be a curmudgeon not to be infected by the joy.

My right shoulder and arm have been bothering me. I figured I overexerted myself in some silly way, like opening a jar for Tita. These things seem to happen more as I get older. Or maybe it is another residue of all my baseball-playing days. I would never tell the coach that my arm hurt because I never wanted to come out of the game...even when the arm was screaming in pain.

About the back nine everything began to hurt, especially my neck and feet. By the time we were done it felt like I was walking on my foot bones. It felt like my bones hurt. I was also stiff and fatigued. I almost missed the ball a couple times off the tee.

The other thought was that this could be a side-effect of the statins I have been taking. My doc warned me about "achiness." (It is amazing the terms the medical profession has for pain...such as discomfort.) My dad confirmed it for me today. He said that when he was taking Lipitor he got so he couldn't walk up the stairs.

I cannot help but wonder what those people who think we should get rid of Social Security think we should do with the old people and sick people who depend on its financial assistance. Throw them out in the streets?

When I was sick with ulcerative colitis I experienced the worst pain I ever had in my life. Only someone who has felt his intestines spasm knows at all what I am talking about it. Or how it feels to be shitting blood every half hour. Even if we try to empathize with someone else, we can never know what it is like. There are many painful disorders, some of which we somewhat understand the causal process, like cancer and pancreatitis. There are others that we don't. I have no doubt that some people who are diagnosed with fibromyalgia experience extreme pain.

I also found out how easily personality could be altered by brain chemistry when I was taking large doses of prednisone, which made me manic. I would never have slept without some powerful sleeping pills, and those only gave me 3-4 hours per night. And then I experienced clinical depression when I came off it.

Tita was sitting reading the paper this morning with her neck warmer on because she had a migraine, a fairly commom occurrence. I don't know what it is like but I am pretty sure it is not fun. Maybe we all should be a little more sympathetic to those who are suffering and thankful if we are not.

Republican nonsense

Is Mitch McConnell a whore for Wall Street? We will see. If any effort to have a mechanism for winding down big banks is a bailout, or a guarantee of taxpayer assistance, then the obvious answer is to break up the megabanks. But the Party of No is disgraceful. After eight years of George Bush and his minions (who apparently ran the show), they truly have the Audacity of Hype.

But let's get over the notion that bailing out the banks at the time was not the thing to do. In hindsight, we should have nationalized some of them and broken them up, but it was hard to know what to do at the time. Can you imagine all the major banks failing? It would have been a catastophe of enormous proportions. Think Great Depression. A lot of people on the left need to get this, too. This nonissue is a huge roadblock in thinking about how to prevent something similar from happening again. And to protect democracy from big banks.

So Mitch, what is your proposal? Or are you redoing the health care reform strategy? I favored the Wyden-Bennett approach, but instead of supporting some positive reform, the Republicans proposed nothing. Death panels. Socialism. Keep appealing to the idiots in your base and the party will self-destruct as the Democrats did in 1968.

And Tea Party goofballs, please take Econ 101. There are good economic reasons for a stimulus package. We will never have the final word on how effective it was, but your party just made it worse by insisting on tax rebates, the most ineffective measure of all. The Democratic Party stinks, too. But I really don't see how you can rationally see Obama as a terrible president at this point. Looks to me like the Audacity of Hate.

Here and here are a couple good Bruce Bartlett posts that illustrate the stupidity. Check out David Frum, too.

Prove me wrong Mitch.

Addendum: As usual, here is Simon Johnson at Baseline Scenario putting the bank issue best.

Post 100

This is post number 100 in a blog that began as an outgrowth of some discussions about political issues amongst various friends, a couple of which are always talking about this stuff in a very self-assured way, but whose views are 180 degrees apart. So I decided to focus more on current issues, such as health care and the financial crisis. Now I am moving on. It feels like a relief. I spot all sorts of silly stuff in the news, which I now watch with a more disinterested sense of detachment. The silly stuff Mitch McConnell is saying now makes me think that the banksters will come out ahead. The Dodd bill doesn't go far enough but Mitch doesn't even want to go that far. C'est la vie. Politics is not policy.

Apparently, there has sprung up a debate on the libertarian blogs regarding whether the late 1800's were libertarian paradise. David Boaz of Cato rightly pointed out that 1780 could hardly be since we had institutionalized slavery. Here are a couple posts from Tyler Cowen and Megan McArdle on the debate. This paradise lost stuff is silly, as is Bryan Caplan. I'm sticking with Rawls, no matter what common sense tells Bryan. I am not much a believer in "conventional wisdom" anyway.

I am reading Our First Revolution by Michael Barone, which is about the "Glorious Revolution" in England in 1688-89. One is struck by how extremely polarized discussion was along religious lines. Also, he claims that the first political parties were formed in the mid-1600's there, between Tories and Whigs. I would have been a Whig, I think.

How did we get to the political views each of us has today? My political birth began in the late 1960's. I was very anti-establishment. Later, I read and liked Ayn Rand but also read Marx and lots of other political theorists. Even in the late 1980's I was still an idealist who thought that we could promote social justice via class action lawsuits against the government. However, it gradually dawned on me that these had little effect. So I settled on a career helping disabled people who were fighting the government. I could at least point out specific cases where specific people were helped. After a lot of hard work, it turned out to be a decent career. I feel pretty lucky that I actually found a niche in law that I have enjoyed. Most law jobs strike me as incredibly boring or hideously compromised (sucking up to fat cats).

It is a beautiful day. Life is good. Time to hit some golf balls.

Victorian England

I am reading the excellent Daily Life in Victorian England by Sally Mitchell. Queen Victoria ruled from 1837-1901!! The book is about how ordinary people lived. Most people worked 12-16 hours a day six days a week. Children went to work as early as 4 or 5 years old. Millowners made agreements with local authorities in impoverished areas to take orphan children as young as age seven off their hands. Most young people were in full employment by the age of 13 or 14.

An 1832 law doubled the number of men who could vote. An Act passed in 1829 created the first professional police department in London. Before that, citizens took turns acting as constables. The 1836 Marriage Act made it a contract regulated by the state rather than the church. After marriage, a woman had no independent legal existence. She didn't even have the right to tend her children if the husband died. It was required that the husband's will appoint her as the guardian.

They had something some conservatives would have loved. It was called the Poor House. It was where people went who required "welfare." It was set up to disincline people to ask for help. They worked all day, were fed terrible food, etc. Eventually it was discovered that only one-fourth of these people were able-bodied. The rest were sick, the old, the disabled, etc.

I think that if current people really knew what life was like in the past, they would cease glorifying it, conservatives and progressives alike. Unfortunately, not much history is taught in school (at least it wasn't when I was young). And most of that was superficial and more about promoting nationalism rather than truth. Of course, in my high school, the coaches were assigned to teach history. Obviously, it wasn't an important position. On the other hand, maybe it's harder to appreciate history when you don't have much personally.

Here is another interesting fact: of all the people who have reached 65 in the history of the planet, more than half are alive today. Maybe Social Security was an idea whose time had come.

Turning pessimistic

Just finished 13 Bankers. Here is Niall Ferguson's comment:

"Too many discussions of the Great Recesssion present it as a purely economic phenomenon--the result of excessive leverage or errors of monetary policy or algorithms run mad. Simon Johnson was the first to point out that this was and is a crisis of political economy. His and James Kwak's analysis of the unholy intertwining of Washington and Wall Street--a cross between the Gilded Age and a banana republic--is essential reading."

I cannot read any more on this stuff. These guys have connected the dots as well as anyone I have found. So I'm off to other adventures and will sit back and see what the political process, always an ugly tug of war between various interests, does about this. I am not optimistic.

In retrospect, the last line of David Brooks column the other day maybe says it best: "Surely a country with this much going for it is not going to wait around passively and let a rotten political culture drag it down." But that is long run. Short run I do not see it happening. Obama would have to become Teddy Roosevelt.